T. Boone Pickens on the future of oil

Monday, January 16, 2006

Howard Thompson offered his insights on the listserve SolarAustin@yahoogroups.com about an interview on NPR:

Oil industry tycoon/visionary/crook/corporate raider T. Boone Pickens was interviewed briefly on NPR this morning. He is actually quite upfront. He predicts $100+ oil price, to which the announcer expresses some disbelief:

Pickens: "Oil prices will go down. We are now temporarily oversupplied. I think 06 will be a pretty lack luster year. For the far out, the long look at it, you will control demand with price. As price goes up, demand will thottle back, it will be kind of herky-jerky, and ten years from now, who know's, $100, $150 a barrel."

NPR: "You really think there will be three digit oil prices in the next decade?"

Pickens: "I don't think there is any question about it."

Historically demand has not been as elastic as he makes it sound, but I suppose there must be a tipping point somewhere. He proceeds to say:

Pickens: "I don't think you can increase production, globally, more than it is right now."

which is of course the same as saying we are at peak. He also believes alternative will be developed, which is shocking to hear publicly from an oil guy. The interview is here. It is about 7 minutes on NPR's site.